Russia's Would-Be President Has Died

Sergei Ivanov once seemed destined for the Kremlin. Putin had other plans

Sergei Ivanov, the man once widely regarded as Russia’s next president, has died. He was considered one of Putin’s closest allies and was only a few months younger than the Russian president. He was just 73 years old.

A Better Spy Than Putin

Sergei Ivanov was one of Putin’s oldest and most trusted friends. They had met back in the late 1970s, when both worked at the KGB in Leningrad (now St Petersburg). However, as an intelligence officer Ivanov was far more successful than Putin. Ivanov was stationed at the Soviet rezidenturas in Finland and Kenya, while Putin toiled away in East Germany. A position in a capitalist country, or even in the Third World, was considered much more prestigious than vegetating in a socialist neighbour. However, even if Putin envied his more successful comrade, he did not show it in 1998, when Yeltsin appointed him head of the FSB. On the advice of his deputies, he brought in Ivanov, too. Moreover, he lured him from the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), where by that time Ivanov had been promoted to the rank of general.

Sergei Ivanov was the Soviet James Bond. The real thing that is, without embellishment or exaggeration, without cinematic romanticism or Hollywood gloss. He was the ideal Soviet spy, indistinguishable from the crowd. A sort of Agent Smith from The Matrix by name and appearance (Ivanov is a very common Russian surname). Sergei Ivanov was also the ideal Soviet man. An intellectual, a graduate of philology, fluent in English and Swedish, an aficionado of ballet and basketball. He read the Western press every morning and resented the way it distorted Soviet reality.

When Putin became prime minister in 1999, it was Ivanov who landed the key post of secretary of the Security Council; and later as president, in 2000, Putin entrusted the Ministry of Defence to his ex-KGB colleague, at a time when war had again broken out in Chechnya.

In Putin’s autobiography, published during his first presidential campaign in 2000, there is the following exchange with a journalist:

Q: Whose advice do you listen to? Who’s in your team? Who do you trust?
A: Trust? Sergei Ivanov, the secretary of the Security Council.

Ivanov performed one other important function: he had links with Washington. In 2001, when Putin became acquainted with George W. Bush, the two presidents agreed that in order to facilitate communication they should assign representatives to maintain permanent contact with each other and be able to resolve issues promptly. Bush appointed Condoleezza Rice, while Putin chose Sergei Ivanov.

Condoleezza Rice and Ivanov

At the beginning of Putin’s first presidential term, Sergei Ivanov and Condoleezza Rice had enjoyed a cordial relationship. In May 2002 George W. Bush, with his wife and entourage in tow, visited Putin in St Petersburg. Putin took his US counterpart to the Mariinsky Theatre to see The Nutcracker. On the way there, Ivanov and Rice discovered a mutual passion for ballet, and also that they didn’t actually want to see The Nutcracker for the hundredth time, but something else. As soon as the lights went out in the hall, Ivanov (then defence minister) suggested to Rice (then presidential advisor for national security) that they go and find something more interesting. She agreed. Ivanov took her to the rehearsal studio of Boris Eifman to watch some Russian avant-garde ballet. Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo (Condoleezza Rice’s Russian counterpart) was sent to keep an eye on the fugitives. He was extremely displeased by the violation of protocol. But Ivanov and Rice were delighted.

The Successor Who Never Was

In 2007, as Putin’s second presidential term was coming to an end, he decided not to seek a third consecutive term and instead hand power to a chosen successor. There were two candidates: Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev, the head of the presidential administration. While Medvedev cultivated the image of a liberal reformer, Ivanov presented himself as a hawk, making no secret of his aggressive foreign policy views. For example, when the pro-Kremlin youth movement Nashi laid siege to the Estonian embassy in Moscow, Ivanov was the official who met with the young activists and thanked them for their assistance. Although the blockade of the Estonian embassy violated the Vienna Convention, and the Russian authorities officially denied any involvement, the defence minister declared that he was “in favour of patriotic sentiment” and “grateful for it.”

Medvedev, Ivanov, Putin

In 2007 Sergei Ivanov was effectively Russia’s deputy head of state. His rather bellicose statements were shown on the news, which naturally raised his approval rating. Meanwhile, both potential successors tirelessly traversed the country, supposedly supervising regional matters, but in fact it was plain electioneering. Medvedev opened new hospitals and universities, handed out free housing and visited new agricultural enterprises. Ivanov, as curator of the defence industry, visited new plants and promised to build Russian aircraft and computers. The visits were covered by all television stations. Every evening news bulletin had reports on Putin, Ivanov and Medvedev.

By summer 2007 it was clear that Ivanov was in the lead. His patriotic talk clearly had greater resonance with viewers. Although there was no direct order from above, more and more news items about him were appearing on state TV. Ivanov’s approval rating was far higher than Medvedev’s.

Both successors had their own staff and, more importantly, their own informal headquarters from which to mount an election campaign.

According to the memoirs of then Kremlin and government insiders, it was Ivanov who made the first mistake. He believed he had a chance—a very good chance—of winning. He could not help notice that he was ahead of his rival in all respects. In June 2007, for instance, Ivanov was unexpectedly given the honour of opening the St Petersburg Economic Forum. President Putin spoke on the second day, while the first day went to Deputy Prime Minister Ivanov, who was not even responsible for the economy.

Where exactly Ivanov came unstuck is not clear. But one episode is remembered. During a visit to Asia, Putin and Ivanov discussed air defence systems with potential buyers. Defence Minister Ivanov was more up to speed on the topic and at one point started to answer questions without even looking at Putin. The president turned to him and said in a low voice: “Are you in charge here?”

The First to Retire

After Putin chose the less popular Dmitry Medvedev as his successor in 2008, Sergei Ivanov faded into the background. But four years later he made an unexpected comeback. When Putin returned to the presidency in 2012, he appointed Ivanov as his chief of staff.

By then, however, Ivanov no longer displayed the drive that had once defined him. According to people who knew him, he had grown tired and believed that his chance had already passed.

Henry Kissinger and Ivanov

A particularly devastating blow came in 2014, when his eldest son, 37-year-old Alexander Ivanov, drowned while swimming in the sea in the United Arab Emirates.

Alexander Ivanov was already well known to the Russian public. In May 2005, he had struck and killed an elderly woman who was crossing the street with the green light. The court nevertheless found him not guilty, placing full responsibility for the accident on the victim.

In 2016, Sergei Ivanov asked Putin to allow him to retire—a highly unusual request in the Kremlin, where senior officials were expected to remain in office for as long as the president wished. Putin granted the request. Ivanov was given the largely symbolic role of presidential adviser on leopard conservation. He also retained his seat as a permanent member of the Security Council—the closest thing in modern Russia to a Soviet-style Politburo.

Ivanov and Pamela Anderson

In reality, however, Ivanov no longer wielded any significant political influence, especially after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. One indication of this was the fate of his younger son, who headed Russia’s state diamond monopoly, Alrosa, until 2023. That year he was dismissed without receiving another senior government or corporate position.

According to widespread reports, Sergei Ivanov had been suffering from cancer in recent years. The death of Putin’s former heir apparent—a man once regarded as an even greater hawk than Putin himself—is deeply symbolic. According to current Kremlin insiders, today’s Putin has no intention of ever handing over power to anyone. He is his own successor.